Canadian REIT Valuations 5/16/25
Tariffs, Hudson's Bay, Immigration, Valuation Tables, 1Q25 Results and Commentary
Uncertainty its high, but investors are overlooking potentially better than expected outcomes. Key updates:
Immigration: REIT managements are hopeful for easing of restrictions
Tariffs: REIT managements have seen very limited impact so far, but uncertainty may have delayed tenant decisions, especially for Industrial property
Hudson’s Bay: REITs have very limited exposure and will benefit from releasing of vacant spaces at higher rates.
Key ideas:
H&R offers the best balance of potential return vs risk. A segregation of Core vs Transition assets shows how much progress has been achieved in the Repositioning plan and provides a framework for reviewing what remains to be done.
Retail properties have the best fundamental strength
Dream Industrial has multiple initiatives to build value over the next year and the unit price has been temporarily depressed by sale of a block by Dream Office
Dream Office has delivered two of the catalysts I expected in 1H25 (asset sale and leasing), but Artis may have stepped back from unit purchases or initiatives to force value realization.
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